November started with hopes for a rebound after a difficult October. By the afternoon, however, sellers were back in control of technology shares. Optimism surrounding US–Iran diplomacy helped send crude oil sharply lower, but that potential positive for inflation and business costs was not enough to sustain the early stock-market gains.

The divergence is the story. The Dow is holding higher, while the S&P and Nasdaq indices are falling. Treasury yields are mostly lower, gold and silver are rebounding, and Bitcoin is struggling alongside technology shares. Buyers found some relief from lower oil, but confidence in the AI trade remains under pressure.

Dollar mixed as the Swiss franc leads

The USD is mixed in the supplied afternoon snapshot, with its largest decline against the Swiss franc and its strongest gain against the Australian dollar.

EURUSD is up 0.33% at 1.1195, while GBPUSD has gained 0.13% to 1.3409. USDCHF is down 0.87% at 0.8178, highlighting the franc’s relative strength. Meanwhile, USDJPY is up 0.22% at 157.88 and USDCAD is 0.09% higher at 1.3986.

The AUDUSD is down 0.46% at 0.6998, while NZDUSD has slipped 0.18% to 0.5618. That combination is consistent with a more cautious tone as the equity rebound fades.

Treasury yields mostly lower

Longer-dated Treasury yields are moving lower, while the 2-year is little changed. The afternoon levels show:

  • 2-year: 4.5833%, up 0.23 basis points.
  • 5-year: 4.6931%, down 2.89 basis points.
  • 10-year: 4.8960%, down 3.30 basis points.
  • 30-year: 5.2751%, down 3.39 basis points.

The sharp fall in crude offers some relief on future inflation pressures, while weaker construction spending and renewed equity selling provide additional reasons for demand for bonds. However, the manufacturing reports still point to uncomfortable price pressures. The data do not give the Fed an uncomplicated signal to ease.

Dow holds higher as technology retreats

The supplied afternoon index changes show:

  • Dow industrial average: +0.52%.
  • S&P 500: −0.41%.
  • Nasdaq Composite: −0.96%.
  • Nasdaq 100: −1.29%.

The larger decline in the Nasdaq 100 underscores the pressure on major growth shares. Lower yields would normally provide some support for those stocks. Today, that support is being overwhelmed by renewed selling.

Beneath the indices, the moves are considerably larger. Marvell is down 12.81%, Astera Labs has fallen 11.39%, Intel is off another 8.70%, and AMD is down 7.03%. The weakness extends beyond semiconductors: CoreWeave is down 9.01%, Nebius has fallen 8.20%, Western Digital is off 7.85%, and Datadog is down 7.81%.

The common theme is exposure to AI infrastructure, computing, storage and cloud spending. Intel’s continued decline adds to the damage following last week’s earnings selloff. The broad indices tell only part of the story; the repricing underneath remains much more severe.

ISM strengthens, but inflation remains elevated

The ISM manufacturing report provided the strongest growth signal. October’s headline index rose to 55.5 from 54.5, beating the 54.5 consensus reported in the release. Production increased to 59.0 from 56.7, while new orders edged higher to 55.5 from 55.3. Employment slipped to 52.4 from 52.7 but remained above the 50 expansion barometer.

Prices paid eased to 75.2 from 77.9, below the 77.5 estimate. That is encouraging at the margin, but it still signals widespread input-cost increases. Supplier deliveries also slowed slightly further. Manufacturing is expanding, but the improvement comes with supply constraints and elevated costs that keep the Fed cautious. investinglive.com

S&P Global PMI shows slower growth and rising costs

The final S&P Global manufacturing PMI delivered a less encouraging growth reading. The index was revised down to 54.9 from the preliminary 56.0 and was below September’s 55.9. It remained comfortably above 50, but new-order growth slowed to its weakest since March.

Employment growth was the strongest since April 2021, while selling prices increased at their fastest pace since September 2022. Delivery times also lengthened sharply. For companies, the message is mixed: activity continues to expand, but higher costs and supply delays create pressure on margins. investinglive.com

Construction spending is the clear weak spot

September construction spending fell 1.9%, compared with expectations for a 0.3% increase. August was revised higher to +2.0% from +0.9%, which cushions the monthly comparison, but the underlying weakness remains evident.

Private residential spending dropped 5.5%, outweighing a 1.1% increase in private nonresidential construction. Total spending was down 2.7% from a year earlier and 2.9% through the first nine months of 2026.

Taken together, the US reports show an uneven economy. Manufacturing continues to grow, but housing-related construction is weakening and inflation pressures remain elevated. That combination offers neither a clean growth story for stocks nor a clear easing signal for the Fed. investinglive.com

Canada’s manufacturing report was weaker still. Its PMI fell to 49.6 from 51.5, slipping into contraction as output, orders and employment declined. Rising input costs and selling prices added an uncomfortable inflation element to the slowdown. investinglive.com

Crude plunges on diplomacy hopes

WTI crude is trading at $96.12, down $8.00 or 7.68% in the supplied snapshot.

InvestingLive’s coverage highlighted hopes that negotiations could produce a framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, the reported Iranian proposal remained conditional, and Washington had not accepted it. The market is pricing greater hope for progress, while a completed agreement remains outstanding. investinglive.com

Lower oil could ease pressure on consumers, transportation costs and inflation. The failure of technology shares to hold their rebound despite that relief shows how persistent the selling has become.

Gold and silver rebound; Bitcoin slips

Spot gold is trading near $3,942.77, up about $67 or 1.73%. Silver is up 2.77% at $50.47.

Gold’s advance is consistent with lower Treasury yields, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding a metal that pays no interest. The dollar’s mixed performance also leaves gold without a uniform currency headwind. Silver is participating in the metals rebound despite the more cautious equity backdrop.

Bitcoin is moving in the opposite direction, down 1.84% at $76,795. For this session, it is behaving more like the pressured technology trade than the recovering precious-metals market.

The next test is whether lower oil and yields can eventually help buyers stabilize stocks, or whether AI selling continues to dominate. Apple and Palantir earnings after the close, followed by Tuesday’s US midterm elections, keep traders focused on both corporate expectations and policy uncertainty.

Source: ForexLive / investingLive — original article