US Dollar Outlook: USD/CHF
USD/CHF climbs toward the 2024 high (0.9225) following the 256K rise in US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), and the exchange rate may continue to track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.8895) as it still holds above the moving average.
US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Climbs Towards 2024 High
USD/CHF extends the recent series of higher highs and lows to push the Relative Strength Index (RSI) towards overbought territory, and a move above 70 in the oscillator is likely to be accompanied by a further advance in the exchange rate like the price action from last year.
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US Economic Calendar
Looking ahead, the update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) may also sway USD/CHF as the report is anticipated to show the headline reading widening to 2.8% in December from 2.7% per annum the month prior, while the core rate is expected to hold steady at 3.3% during the same period.
Signs of persistent inflation may generate a bullish reaction in the Greenback as it puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to pause its rate-cutting cycle, but a softer-than-expected CPI report may drag on the US Dollar as it fuels speculation for lower US interest rates.
With that said, lack of momentum to test the 2024 high (0.9225) may keep the RSI out of overbought territory, but USD/CHF may stage a further advance over the coming days should the bullish price series persist.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/CHF Price on TradingView
- USD/CHF stages a four-day rally as it extends the advance from the monthly low (0.9009), with breach above the 2024 high (0.9225) opening up the October 2023 high (0.9245).
- Next area of interest comes in around the 2023 high (0.9440), but USD/CHF may struggle to extend the recent series of higher highs and lows should it fail to test the 2024 high (0.9225).
- Lack of momentum to close above 0.9180 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) may push USD/CHF back towards the 0.9030 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.9040 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region, with a breach below the monthly low (0.9009) bringing the 0.8880 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.8910 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone on the radar.
Additional Market Outlooks
GBP/USD Approaches November 2023 Low
Gold Price Recovery Eyes December High
US Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Stages Three-Day Rally
EUR/USD Weakness Brings January Opening Range in Focus
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
