- Trump's inauguration on Jan 20th
- Potential winners: US equities, Dollar & Bitcoin
- Potential losers: Currencies of US trading partners, Euro/Chinese indices & Oil
Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th U.S. President on January 20th.
Markets are already off to a volatile start in this new year, trying to pre-empt what Trump’s second administration would entail.
Already, bond and stock markets worldwide have seen wild swings, with investors and traders fearing that Trump 2.0’s policies could reawaken inflation. Such a development may prevent major central banks, especially the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates this year.
POTENTIAL WINNERS:
- US equities - (US500, NAS100, US30, RUS200)
Trump 2.0 is expected to benefit industries with its bias towards de-regulations.
A softer regulatory environment along with corporate tax cuts and more government spending could help businesses – boosting US equities.
- Dollar
Trump’s “America First” policies are likely to revive US inflation, resulting in slower Fed rate cuts.
His policies also appear to significantly reduce the odds of a US recession, while stoking concerns about worsening geopolitical tensions.
From US interest rates that are higher than its peers, to US exceptionalism, and even safe-haven demand – all this could further boost demand towards the USD.
- Bitcoin
More industry-friendly regulations under Trump’s administration will be welcomed by the crypto space.
Bitcoin could see significant gains if Trump establishes a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve.
POTENTIAL LOSERS:
- FX: EUR, MXN, CNH
Currencies of major US trading partners may be in trouble.
If Trump moves ahead with the proposed tariffs on goods entering the United States from China, Canada, Mexico, and Europe – this may impact their respective economies.
Note: Slower economic growth may lead to lower interest rates, which could lead to weaker currencies, especially when compared against the US
- European & Chinese indices - (EU50, CN50, CHINAH, GER40)
Trump’s proposed US tariffs are seen hitting European and Chinese exports, possibly impacting these major economies.
A darker economic outlook could also sour appetite for European and Chinese equities in tandem.
- Oil
Despite spiking higher at the onset of 2025, oil prices could decline if Trump’s proposed tariffs eventually weaken demand from the world’s largest energy consumer – China.
If his return to office means an increase in US oil and gas production, in addition to a stronger dollar – this could also weigh on the global commodity.
And there you have it.
A list of assets that could win or lose under Trump this year.
Still, these are early days in the new year; there’s bound to be more twists and turns ahead.
Make sure you stay up to date with our Market Analysis.