US and European futures are trading higher as traders continue to push their luck ahead of the most important economic reading – the US CPI number. Green is the dominant color if you look at the US stock indices or the European stock indices. For instance, the Nasdaq Index, the worst-performing US stock index last year, has been rising for the past three consecutive days. Traders believe that if the Nasdaq index is picking up this much strength, as it was the weakest index in 2022, we will likely see more bullish moves for the overall stock market.
Basically, the question that obsessed market players back in 2020 was when and where inflation readings in the US, Europe, and the rest of the world would peak. We now know that the inflation reading peaked in the US last year, and it has started to move away from its 40-year high. Now, the question among traders and investors is how low can the inflation reading go for the US economy, meaning how close it can get to the Fed’s target. More importantly, how long will it take for the reading to reach that level?
The reality is that few critical areas of the economy will influence the direction of inflation. Some are local — the state of the housing and labor markets in the United States will be crucial — while others are global, as trade blocs and supply chains change due to tensions between major powers.
The inflation reading will be released tomorrow at 01:30 PM, which will likely bring higher volatility for the US stock indices. As for today, the economic calendar continues to remain on the quiet side. There is the US crude oil inventory data, which will be released at 03:30 PM today.
Stock Market
Major market indices on Wall Street closed higher overnight as investors maintained their gains from the year’s initial bounce. In a speech, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the significance of the central bank’s independence from political interference without directly indicating the direction of monetary policy. As for the Asian markets, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong gained 1.01%. Mainland Shanghai Composite in China increased by 0.24%, while Shenzhen Component increased marginally. The largest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside of Japan increased by 0.41%.
Apple
Apple could be the stock of the day today as the company announced that it would be manufacturing its own screen. Currently, Apple has been using Samsung’s screen in its phones. The announcement triggered a sell-off in Apple suppliers. The stock price of Samsung fell by 0.17%. LG display also saw its shares decline by 3.35%.
Gold
The precious metal’s price continues to soar, and for the past five consecutive days, we have seen the yellow metal price climbing. Traders are fairly optimistic about the Fed’s monetary policy and believe that the Fed is likely to adopt a less hawkish one. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman, who spoke yesterday, didn’t drop any big hints about the Fed’s monetary policy. However, traders have taken his speech more positively and anticipate that the Fed will take it easy with its monetary policy.
The most important wild card is the US CPI inflation data which will be coming out tomorrow. If the number doesn’t show satisfactory performance, we could see the dollar index soaring on the back of that number which could easily take away the shine from the gold prices.