31-7-2019 – Boris to sell No-Deal to Irish

Asia

Asian indexes traded in the red this morning despite optimistic sounds coming from the US-China trade talks, rebooted in Shanghai yesterday. Overnight, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing published its manufacturing PMI for July – in contraction f9r the 3rd month in a row but surprising to the upside as it added 3 tenths to 39.7.

The non-manufacturing PMI fell half a point to 53.7, while in Australia, consumer inflation for Q2 came in at a pleasing 1.6% YoY. New Zealand’s activity outlook fell to 5%, while business confidence in July was -44.3 – down from -38.1 the month before.

Japan’s housing starts increased by 0.3% in June, but consumer confidence fell a point to 37.8.

Europe

Despite a 0.6% rise in Q2 earnings on average for companies listed on the Euro Stoxx 600, equities throughout Europe closed severely in the red last night, led by Spain’s IBEX-35 (down 2.48%) followed by the Dax’s 2.18% contraction.

European sentiment markers were down in July, business climate at minus 0.12 and industrial confidence at minus 7.4. Germany’s preliminary consumer inflation index managed to add a tenth and is now at 1.7YoY for July, while retail sales increased by 3.5% MoM in June, not enough to lift the yearly figure, which is now in a 1.6% contraction.

France’s CPI this morning shows a not-as-bad-as-expected contraction to 1.3%, and Spain’s GDP estimate for Q2 has been downgraded to 2.3% Yoy.

In the UK, consumer confidence is still negative but surprised to the upside as it climbed to -11 in July, this as shop prices contracted by another 0.1% in June., and housing prices beat expectations at 0.3% in July.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders yesterday reported a 70% contraction in car investments in H1 of this year.

And today, PM Boris Johnson visits Northern Ireland to sell his no-deal Brexit, which entails border controls between Northern Ireland and its southern neighbour – the still EU-bound Irish Republic. In the north, the nationalist Sinn Fein party is calling for the unification of the island, a sentiment echoing the Republic’s PM.

US

With the FED expected to cut interest rates by a quarter percent, dissent is growing, led by Boston, Kansas & possibly Chicago Fed Heads, Rosengren, George & Evans having expressed reservations for rate cuts in a “perfectly well” performing economy.

Meanwhile, US indexes closed in the red yesterday, with US Pending Home Sales in June added 1.6% after a 0.7% contraction in May. Otherwise, data was poor – personal spending down, consumption and income flat, while the Case Shiller Home Price index lost a tenth, climbing 2.4% in May (YoY).

Commodities

Crude oil last night broke through the 57.20 resistance level and is resting along the 58.40 line, after the API reported another 6mB drawdown and as sanctions pressure Iranian exports down to 100,000 barrels per day.

Corporate

Apple shares lost 0.43% yesterday but recovered that in after-hours trading as poor iPhone sales (down 12% for the quarter) pushed earnings down 7% on a 1% increase in revenue.

Proctor & Gamble, on the other hand, added 3% as revenues beat expectations by $200mn and earnings, 3.77%. Meanwhile, Airbus is thriving on Boeing’s woes – revenues increased 23% and EPS – 452% YoY as its A321NEO takes up the slack of Boeing’s grounded 737MAX.

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