White House on trade negotiations with China

Asia

India’s reserve bank cut rates this week on a weakening domestic economy. Otherwise, most markets around the world are up on China-US trade talk optimism, the Nikkei up a third this morning. Also in Japan, the Leading Economic Index is up to 97.4 for February, despite a drop in cash earnings and household spending. And Chinese banks today will be celebrating the Ching Ming Festival and markets will be awaiting today’s NFP.

Europe

Industrial production from Germany gave some glimmer of hope for the embattled Euro. It was up 0.7% in February MoM – better than expected but not enough to lift the yearly figure into positive ground. Other than a severe drop in factory orders from Germany, data was thin from Europe yesterday, as the Brexit cast continue to seek a script. Meanwhile, hopes of some form of understanding between the multiple sides is pushing the sterling heavenwards. According to the Wall Street Journal, ECB officials yesterday discussed more aggressive stimulus to support the zone’s economy. Equities started strong yesterday, then retreated from 8-month highs. A competition between Italy’s UniCredit and DeutscheBank to acquire Commerzbank is pushing up the shares of the acquisition.

US

The US dollar yesterday was in an optimistic mood – adding 30 cents until the nation’s ambassador to China dampened hopes somewhat regarding trade talks. White House officials also doubt a summit will be announced this week, which would signify a succesful end to negotiations. Meanwhile, ahead of today’s NFP at noon, employment data was positive yesterday, with a 10K drop in initial jobless claims and a 40K drop in the continuing figure.

Commodities

The WTI-Brent spread may finally be narrowing as the latter drops from the $70 level but WTI manages to hold on to the $62 handle. WTI yesterday slipped from $63 after the EIA published a scathing 7.3mB buildup in inventories the day before. For both mixes, the main concern is an economic slowdown and the resulting fall in demand. Brent is up 30% for the year, WTI – 40%.

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