• USDJPY under pressure on D1/H4 timeframe
  • Weekly support next key point of interest
  • 4 potential targets identified on the H4 chart
  • Bearish scenario invalided above 147.452

The USDJPY could be on the cusp of creating a new impulse wave in the current downtrend.

Bulls tried to reach the weekly resistance level yesterday but were unable to shake the bearish resolve. Prices seem to be picking up negative momentum and might be heading south to a weekly support level at 144.758.

Looking at the structure of the market on a lower time frame for better timing, the H4 chart proves to give valuable insight. The potential bearish momentum is confirmed by the price being below the 50 Linear Weighted Moving Average with both the Momentum Oscillator and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in bearish terrain.

The weekly resistance level might be re-tested but if it holds and the price reaches the 146.226 level, a short opportunity will be triggered.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to the trigger level just below the last lower bottom at 146.226 and dragging it to just above the last lower top at 147.452, four possible targets can be established:

  • The first potential target is at 145.736 (Target 1). This target will mainly be for risk management.

  • The second price target is likely at 145.490 (Target 2) and now the risk of the overall position should be almost none.

  • The third price target is possible at 145.000 (Target 3), just before the weekly support level.

  • The fourth and last price target is feasible at 144.387 (Target 4) if the bears manage to break through the next weekly support level.

If the price at 147.452 is broken, this scenario is no longer applicable.