• Brent bears bag 350 points!
  • EURUSD ↑ 30 pips on ECB decision
  • Sugar ↑ almost 5% this week

With the ECB meeting done and dusted, the next market-moving event could be Friday’s US jobs data.

Ahead of this key economic report, here’s how these discussed instruments have performed:

 

    1) Oil slumps on OPEC+ surprise move

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

In our week ahead article published on Friday, 31st May:

We discussed how “oil benchmarks could kick off June with a bang” with the OPEC+ virtual meeting one of the key factors.

Our technical section highlighted how “a solid breakdown below $81.00 may open a path towards $77.50”.

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

Brent tumbled roughly 4% on Monday as markets pieced together OPEC+ decision over the weekend.

Although the cartel agreed to extend production cuts into 2025, it also set a date to start bringing back oil into the market this year. Such a move comes at a time when uncertainty over China’s demand outlook has weighed on the global commodity.

Concerns over OPEC+ decision leading to higher supplies down the road have kept oil bears in the game, with brent dipping below $77.50.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

350 points for traders who sold Brent at $81.00 and exited at $77.50.

Before

After 

 

    2) EURUSD jumps on ECB decision

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

This technical scenario (EURUSD) is based on the FXTM Signals that are released once a day before the opening of the U.S. trading session.

These signals are designed around a trading instrument’s most influential factor – PRICE - making them a powerful asset to your trading strategy.

It can be found in the MyFXTM profile under Trading Services... FXTM Trading Signals.

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

As widely expected, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points this afternoon – marking its first rate cut since 2019.

The central bank stated that it will follow a data-dependent approach and was not “pre-committing to a particular rate path”. Interestingly, the inflation projections for 2024 and 2025 was raised higher.

During the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde adopted an upbeat tone on the European economic recovery but also highlighted economic risk remain tilted to the downside in the medium term.

The Euro initially jumped over 30 pips as investors mulled over when next the ECB will cut rates.

Traders are currently pricing in 95% probability of another 25 basis-point ECB cut by September.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

13 pips for traders who entered at 1.08822 and exited at the 2nd take profit level at 1.08943.

 

    3) Sugar rushes to fresh multi-week high

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

Earlier this week, we discussed how FXTM’s new Sugar commodity was trending higher on the H1 timeframe.

We also identified how “a strong break above 18.90 may see bulls challenge 19.08 and 19.30.”.

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

Sugar prices climbed this week thanks to supply related concerns in Brazil – its biggest producer.

Markets are speculating that Brazil’s harvest may not be as much as initially forecasted amid risks of dry weather.

The soft commodity rallied above 18.90 cents per pound to hit 19.30 on Thursday morning.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

40 points for traders who jumped in at 18.90 and exited at the take profit level at 19.30.

Before

After

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