This is an excerpt from our full 2025 GBP/USD Outlook report, one of nine detailed reports about what to expect in the coming year.
GBP/USD outlook – technical analysis
GBP/USD Monthly chart
GBP/USD broke out above its falling trendline dating back to 2007 but failed to extend the breakout. GBP/USD is testing the trendline support.
Source: TradingView
GBP/USD Weekly chart
The BoE will likely cut interest rates more than the Federal Reserve next year, which could put GBP/USD under further pressure. The technical picture also looks more bearish.
GBP/USD ran into resistance at 1.3425 and rebounded lower, breaking below the 200 SMA and the rising trendline dating back to the September 2022 low. More recently, the price has taken out the 100 SMA, which, combined with the RSI below 50, keeps sellers hopeful of further losses.
If sellers take out the 1.25 support, 1.23 support comes into focus; the 2024 low, break below here, creates a lower low. Below here, 1.20, the 2023 low comes into play.
On the upside, buyers will look to rise above 1.28 to expose the 200 SMA and 1.30 psychological level. A rise above 1.34 would create a higher high.
Source: TradingView